Main branch of fun – guess the prices – is in full swing. We deal with hundreds of manufacturers, with dozens of them – almost every day, and I often wonder what people think about the prices of their behavior, which makes forecasts.
Every second of my interlocutors has their own theory of price behavior, or at least acquaintances that can be trusted with their theories. Some try to rely on intuition, some on the behavior of prices in previous years. Some people try to analyze the workload of their colleagues and to draw conclusions about the quantities of mushroom that will appear on the market in a while. There are those who try to find out in the compost industries the schedules of compost shipment – in most cases unsuccessfully. Many also try to predict the deviation of demand from the usual trend – based on rumors about non-payment of salaries, analysis of the mood of their friends and their own well-being.
Unfortunately, the lack of information makes these forecasts are not analytical, but rather intuitive, built on experience. It is also impossible not to notice a “herd” in the best sense of the word, behavior – when a person hears from three people a forecast, it often becomes a carrier of the same forecast.
But in any case, the prediction is always better than none. Some farms, even on the basis of inaccurate and unreliable forecasts, manage to earn significantly more than those without them – “podgadyvaya” fungus at the time the highest target price.
Today, we are working to bring some basis for forecasting prices. Use planning data producers themselves, the information may be obtained from compost production, demand forecasts, and, of course, price statistics in previous periods.
And today, for the trial, I will publish its forecast, while also based more on the generalization of the manufacturer, as well as to some proper analysis. Once again – this is not a forecast, for which I would have to vouch. This is my contribution to the divination. Therefore, if you have your own version – share in the comments.
So, I think that the trend in selling prices from farms to wholesalers in the Kiev region will be as follows. Also, please take apart the trend (increase, decrease, stability) and the absolute level of prices. The trend is written on the previous period.
in the last decade of March – stable high, at a level of from 19 to 22 USD / kg;
the first decade of April – a slight decline in prices – minus 1.0-2.0 UAH hryvnia from the previous period;
the second decade of April – stable prices, in the end there may be some reduction;
third decade of April – the price decline, prices – minus 1.0-3.0 UAH from the previous period. In late April – a rise in price for several hryvnia.
the first decade of May – before Easter – the price increase, prices – plus 3-5 hryvnia, after Easter – a sharp decline by 5-7 hryvnia relative level before Easter, prices will drop by 10 May to the level 12-13 UAH / kg;
the second decade of May – consistently low prices;
third decade of May – unusual for this period of price increase by 2-3 UAH.
Share your views in the comments!